Columbia to have largest spring Chinook run in 71 years???

carojae

2009-12-12 05:47:19

By Hal Bernton

Seattle Times staff reporter

Fishery scientists forecast that some 470,000 spring chinook will return to the Columbia River next year, which would be the largest run since 1938.

That huge run size would be good news for sport, tribal and commercial fishermen who all place a high value on chinook, considered one of the finest-tasting salmon in North America.

But scientists who advise Columbia River fish mangers have struggled in recent years to come up with accurate run predictions, which have been based heavily on the numbers of immature jack males that return to the river each year.

Based on the jack model, the past several years of forecasts have overstated actual runs by about 45 percent, according to Stuart Ellis, a fishery scientist with the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission.

The 2009 jack run was a record, but scientists were wary of using this jack return to project 2010.

"The number of jacks that returned in 2009 was four times greater than anything we've seen before, which made the number a statistical anomaly," Ellis said. "At the same time, we know the environment for young salmon appears to be changing and we need to account for that."

The new forecast is based on an expanded set of models. Accurate forecasts are necessary to set harvest at levels that meet treaty obligations and conservation requirements under the federal Endangered Species Act.

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Pretty interesting :)

What does this mean to Alaska? Low prices for sure? Everyone is happy? The treaty is working for them? Factors other than Alaskan fisherman actually have the biggest bearing on fish runs?.....

Link;

~~[url=~~http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/othersports/2010477902_regr11.html][url]http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/othersports/2010477902_regr11.html

carojae

2009-12-12 05:59:58

Huge Columbia River spring chinook run expected

Posted by Mark Yuasa

The technical committee advising Columbia River fishery managers has released its forecast for the 2010 spring chinook run. If the fish show up as projected, the forecast of 470,000 spring chinook would be the largest return to the Columbia since 1938.

The forecasted run is up significantly from last year's final run of 169,300 fish.

"Predicting salmon returns is often like predicting Pacific Northwest weather, in that it can be right or it can also be wrong," said Tony Floor, director of fishing affairs for the Northwest Marine Trade Association. "To get news like this of the biggest spring chinook run in 70 years is a short of a miracle, and we like miracles."

"We also recognize contemporary pressures to pass more spring chinook over Bonneville Dam with emphasis for tribal fishery needs," Floor said. "So while we're looking forward to some form of bonanza run of spring chinook we also anticipate that a greater number than in recent years will be managed over Bonneville Dam."

Because of challenges in forecasting the spring chinook returns in recent years, members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) had to reconsider the model they have used in past years to predict the number of returning fish.

According to Stuart Ellis in a news release, current chair of the TAC and fisheries scientist of the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC), committee members were leery of the record number of spring chinook "jacks" counted at Bonneville Dam in 2009. Jacks are immature, precocious males that return after just one or two years in the ocean.

In the past few years, forecasts relying heavily on jack counts from the previous season had overstated the actual return of adult fish by an average of 45 percent. An accurate preseason forecast is necessary to set commercial and recreational harvest levels that meet treaty obligations under U.S. v Oregon and conservation mandates to protect fish runs listed under the federal Endangered Species Act.

Ellis said this year the The technical committee advising Columbia River fishery managers has released its forecast for the 2010 spring chinook run. If the fish show up as projected, the forecast of 470,000 spring chinook would be the largest return to the Columbia since 1938.

The forecasted run is up significantly from last year's final run of 169,300 fish.

"Predicting salmon returns is often like predicting Pacific Northwest weather, in that it can be right or it can also be wrong," said Tony Floor, director of fishing affairs for the Northwest Marine Trade Association. "To get news like this of the biggest spring chinook run in 70 years is a short of a miracle, and we like miracles."

"We also recognize contemporary pressures to pass more spring chinook over Bonneville Dam with emphasis for tribal fishery needs," Floor said. "So while we're looking forward to some form of bonanza run of spring chinook we also anticipate that a greater number than in recent years will be managed over Bonneville Dam."

Because of challenges in forecasting the spring chinook returns in recent years, members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) had to reconsider the model they have used in past years to predict the number of returning fish.

According to Stuart Ellis in a news release, current chair of the TAC and fisheries scientist of the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC), committee members were leery of the record number of spring chinook "jacks" counted at Bonneville Dam in 2009. Jacks are immature, precocious males that return after just one or two years in the ocean.

In the past few years, forecasts relying heavily on jack counts from the previous season had overstated the actual return of adult fish by an average of 45 percent. An accurate preseason forecast is necessary to set commercial and recreational harvest levels that meet treaty obligations under U.S. v Oregon and conservation mandates to protect fish runs listed under the federal committee considered several additional models that took into account other factors such as ocean conditions.

"The number of jacks that returned in 2009 was four times greater than anything we've seen before, which made the number a statistical anomaly," Ellis said. "At the same time, we know the environment for young salmon appears to be changing and we needed to account for that."

"We're still projecting a strong return for upriver spring chinook salmon next year, but we needed to temper last year's jack return with other indicators of spring chinook abundance," he added.

The seven models chosen by TAC generated a range of predicted run sizes from 366,000 to 528,000 adults. The committee members agreed on 470,000 as an average of the models. This forecast will now be used by the managers to develop preseason fishing plans.

The Technical Advisory Committee was established under the US v. Oregon and includes representatives from Oregon, Idaho and Washington fish and wildlife departments, the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (on behalf of the Nez Perce tribe, the Umatilla tribe, the Warm Springs tribe and the Yakama Nation,) the Shoshone-Bannock tribe, the National Marine Fisheries Commission and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Salty

2009-12-12 18:26:44

I have been following this story for some time. I have seen estimates as high as 1.5 million based on factors they used to use for predicting the runs like the high jack returns. The problem with projecting high returns is that they have to share them with fisheries up and down the coast, like trollers. Where as if they underestimate then they just increase the in-river harvests. I would be surprised if this run comes in under 500,000.

I have not checked but my understanding is that Alaska does not get a significant number of springers in our fisheries. That it is the upriver brites that contribute most to our troll fishery.

I do not expect much of an impact to Alaska troll Chinook prices. Most of these are harvested in river with gillnets. I have been at taste tests with these fish, farmed Chinook from BC, and winter troll caught from Sitka Sound. Even I was amazed at how much better the Alaska wild king was. While these are fine fish and fine eating the fact that they are in river, and caught with gillnets reduces the quality. They might impact our troll caught chum or coho prices a bit though.
~~[attachment=1]~~34 Pound Chinook.jpg[/attachment]
~~[attachment=0]~~King salmon belly flap as appetizer.jpg[/attachment]

salmon4u

2009-12-12 22:05:39

I agree, It's amazing that river kings can look great, but the flavor isn't there compared to ocean caught, Yumm, ocean caught king salmon bellies are my favorite for sure, most likely the best part of the best tasting salmon in the world.

ashadu

2009-12-14 02:46:24

will these fish impact wash. and oregon openings? if they expand the march april may opprotunities for washington and oregon, there may be price pressure but also open more markets for the alaska fish. or are these the feb. gillnet fish out of the columbia? if so they will be a price indicator of demand for wild king salmon. either way, the good news is that in the year 2010 you can have an increased salmon run which results from constant political pressure to improve salmon habitat and passage way to spawning grounds. Hooray for wild salmon!!

doryman

2009-12-17 06:02:55

Us trollers in northern Oregon really don't get to catch these. Our north of Cape Falcon season doesn't usually start until May 1st, and at that the weather really is marginal that time of year here so fishing time can be extremely limited. My catch in May usually is a mixed bag of summer and fall run feeders, and a few true springers most of these fish will be in or near the river when our hooks go in the water. I have seen some promising numbers for the summer and fall runs though. Some jack counts are highest on record and many are at 25 year highs. I saw data for one hatchery run that showed largest jack count ever by a factor of 2! I see this stuff and it gets me all excited until the fish managers start dumping all the bad news on me during the upcoming season setting process. The toughest problem we face in northern Oregon is the "natural" or "native" coho stocks. Even with a huge king run we can possibly get a very limited season when a particular coho count is low, due to hooking impacts. Of course many argue that there are little to no naturally occurring bloodlines left, as rivers and streams here had eggs from all over the state dumped in them over 70 years ago. In the high chinook low coho count scenario we are limited to fishing with only 6" plugs, period to prevent coho contact. It really is a bummer and we don't catch worth a damn. Then we have a situation like last year when there are over 1 million coho returning and we have to throw back all the coho without a healed adipose clipped fin, signifying it as hatchery released. The problem is the clip ratio varies from 1%-70% depending on the hatchery. Also when there is a large hatchery run there is also a large "native" run due to good ocean conditions. The managers decided that the best thing to do is throw the dead coho that aren't clipped back into the sea. Sound crazy? Most of us down here that still fish have had about enough of this BS. I called them out last year when we were throwing back 100+ fish per day and they did not care. They said they factor the mortality rate into the fishery, and did not care that we were wasting 1000's of fish. Their observers on the charter boats were reporting back such horrendous throwback rates they really tried to keep it quiet. When I asked about it they said that they were "surprised" that the ratio was about 5 to 1 on the charters, they were not expecting it to be that bad. I asked if habitat improvement and good ocean conditions provided such a good natural run that there were more of them that hatchery fish? No response. So to keep my 200 coho limit a week last year I had to catch about 550-600. So we wake up early, go out and shred and kill fish all day, keeping very few, sell our catch for a low price and are supposed to feel good about it. Laddering 10-12 spreads per wire and keeping 2 gets old real fast. It makes my head hurt even thinking about doing this again next year. My partner boat said he won't do it. Mentally it is draining watching 10 pound silvers float away to die. It is like this every year, and getting worse as the "native" runs get stronger, and hatchery budgets for fin clippers get smaller. When I suggest a different approach they tell me if you want to keep all coho your quota will be reduced by 80% to account for taking "natives". You can imagine the sea lion problems that arise once these dead floaters are all over the ocean. By the end of the season there were so many lions around we couldn't fish anymore. Plus the ratio got to about 10 throwbacks per 1 keeper. This fishery is an absolute joke down here now. Oregon and Washington fish departments really love this fishery though. It creates lots of little studies and number crunching for them, job security. We were also so fortunate to get our 20,000 fish share from the 1.2 million returners. The sports got 180,000. When I tell the state they have screwed me and I want my boat, gear, and permit bought back they laugh, the problem is it is not a joke. Looks like we will also not be fishing on most of the coast this year anyway for the 4th year in a row because of the Sacramento River king problems. In California they are having a hard time grasping the fact that fish need to swim in fresh clean water, yet the big agribusiness keeps pumping the rivers dry and until that changes we fill not be able to fish most of Oregon and California. It has gotten so political down here, and the government idiots who run this want to see the troller gone, sport interests control everything. Sorry for the rant, but there are few people in the lower 48 who can relate to my frustration.

Salty

2009-12-17 19:36:13

Doryman,

Thanks for the great post describing troller "hell".

SilverT

2009-12-18 03:52:56

This fishery is an absolute joke down here now. Oregon and Washington fish departments really love this fishery though. It creates lots of little studies and number crunching for them, job security.

Thanks, Doryman, for exposing the driving force behind continuation of the fin clip program. As more fish inadvertently die "released" relative to the number retained, it becomes apparent that someone is doing a great job of keeping themselves employed, at the expense of the resource, taxpayers and communities. The percentage of hatchery fin clipped fish has been low and it fires me up that a large empire of technicians, biologists and high paid managers justifies its existence through the maintenance of such a destructive program. It would be nice to see accountability.

A well done video documenting the benefits of the fishery to coastal communities and the general public comes to mind. It would also need to include a description of the current regulations, analysis of the number of employees and managers necessary to maintain the programs, analysis of the effectiveness of the programs and then a clip of salmon slowly sinking out of sight after being "released" to preserve "wild" fish stocks. We appeal to common sense.

Thanks again. Great post.

spike christopher

2009-12-18 04:53:11

I understand the frustration of all this. We are headed in a direction that few of us want to see or be involved in. I know as a young man I used to think that common sense and scientific studies would solve most our economic problems. I am now 65 and for the past 15 years have seen a complete deterioration of our fisheries. I do not believe for one minute that it will get better. It is complicated and simple at the same time. The only way I have seen change is by political voting power. The group that has the voting power is the group that will get the change, good or bad. Just follow the vote and the money. There is a great example of this on the Kenai Peninsula and the Kenai River in south central Alaska. It is too detailed to explain it here but if you want to know how it hurt the commercial fishing write me at spikechristopher@hotmail.com and I can bore you to death. A few months back I was hopeful that some of the dams that were creating problems for the salmon in the south were going to be removed. After some research the only thing I could come up with was the politicians signed a letter of intent. That and a dollar can buy you a cup of coffee. I truly hope we can come up with solutions before it is to late. With all that said I am sure glad I have a permit in Alaska and not in Washington.

DiamondLil

2009-12-29 20:19:14

Doryman gave a good description of the coho problem. In addition to the mark-select coho fishery, there is a LOT of pressure from WDFW to go to a mark-select chinook fishery. The sports already do this; the trollers are fighting it. The threat comes from NOAA in the form of cutting funding for hatcheries if we can't keep hatchery fish off of the spawning grounds. We depend on hatchery production for our fish. And while jack counts are way up, the limiting factor for the NOF quota will be Lower Columbia wild tules. Even with large returns to the Bonneville hatcheries, I don't expect the NOF quota for chinook to change much and it may be less depending on the exploitation rate NOAA allows on LCR tules. The chinook fishing in 2009 was horrible. A third of the already low quota was left in the ocean. With a large return in 2010, more boats might actually catch their trip limit once in a while, but a large increase in the quota is a long shot.

Someone mentioned politics. In WA there are approximately 150 troll permits of which maybe half are active. That's not much political clout. If you value the fishery, support your gear groups both North and South of Falcon, follow the season-setting process, try to attend the meetings. And as another poster said, if you're a troller, Alaska is the place to be.

Joe