mswkickdrum
2009-01-02 05:52:08
**Summer Allocation?
Has anyone heard, know, suspect, deciphered rumors etc. on the summer allocation of kings? up? down? some? a lot? a little?
I know there has been a sentence or two on here about it being reduced. Just looking for some illiteration on it.
The jack returns on Sacramento were way down so I'm thinking that situation will still put downward pressure on allocations,
but I'm a beginner, and looking for expert based forecasts.
**Fish Price?
The economy is DOWN now and was up this summer when we saw the high prices. Yes, the economy was about to
fall then, but most were still drinking the coolaide. Relatives in Orange County saw Copper River salmon in their grocery
store at $50 a pound. Yes, you read that right FIVE ZERO a pound. Last season's prices were great, but am I on
the right track in thinking the $7 a pound for Kings is going to be lowered for this season?
Please chime in, I need to get a license and these two factors will affect if the "today's" value movement up or down.
Obviously over time it's trended up, and I'm guessing that will continue if only one of these is down but I'm not experienced
enough to be aware of other factors I could be missing to calculate. I do figure though that if they both go down, the price
of a permit should ease off a little from the current 35K. I've researched leasing/EMT transfers and last year
they were around 6500. If one is going to take on a chunk of debt before pulling away from the dock, my thinking
is it could be better to have something to show for it rather then just the right of use for a season. I don't think
a permit would take a 25% drop in a season, doubtful it would even go down as much as the going EMT rate. When
I think of it over my foreseen trolling life, it wouldn't really matter, I'm just concerned about the start up
cost I'm facing now.
Thanks,
Marshall
Hi Marshall:
>>>>>>>>**Summer Allocation? Has anyone heard, know, suspect, deciphered rumors etc. on the summer allocation of kings? ....
The Southeast AK quota is based on a Pacific Salmon Treaty chinook model abundance index. That figure is not available until late March/early April, when the 2008 data is added to the model and its calibrated. The quota is a very difficult number to 'guesstimate'... those that do, often miss the mark. To further complicate things, there are preseason, in-season, and post-season estimates. It can make your head spin. Anyway, in a couple months we'll have a better idea how things are looking. Right now, the 8 Ball is murky.
>>>>>>>>>>I know there has been a sentence or two on here about it being reduced.
I suspect you're referring to the new Treaty agreement, which will be implemented beginning - today. That has reduced Alaska's chinook allocation by 15% in each of the next 10 years. And, it reduced the West Coast Vancouver Island quota by 30%.
Canadian and Alaska fisheries are held accountable for select groupings of chinook stocks - it varies by fishery. Those in Alaska are commonly called "far north migrating". When the model is calibrated, the Treaty biologists come up with what's called an Abundance Index. There is a chart of quota numbers that corresponds to the abundance index. I don't have that chart in front of me right now, but for the sake of discussion ONLY... say the abundance index is 1.0, we'd look at the chart of quota allocations and see that the associated quota is 100,000 chinook for SE Alaska (again - this is not THE number, just for example) .
Alaska then takes the abundance index and applies the Board of Fish allocation. The Yakutat setnet fleet gets 1000 fish; the seiners and gillnetters both get a percentage of the total quota; and, of those fish that remain, trollers and sport fishermen split them 80% troll/20% sport.
For anyone reading along who might be curious and/or concerned about the sport number - 20% is
>>>>>>>>>The jack returns on Sacramento were way down so I'm thinking that situation will still put downward pressure on allocations,
but I'm a beginner, and looking for expert based forecasts.
The Sacramento has nothing to do with the Southeast quota. This is a long discussion and I'm happy to talk to you about it if you want to call the office.
>>>>>>>> I on the right track in thinking the $7 a pound for Kings is going to be lowered for this season?
I'll let those that actually market salmon speak to the ups and downs of the market. If you are new enough not to have fished the summer, then perhaps you don't know that the summer price is rarely as high as winter? That said, our price, year round, has been terrific the last few years and with fuel prices, we've been very fortunate. Will it hold? I don't know, but it will be interesting to see. Typically, you'd think our fish are in a market that's a bit insulated from economic downturn, but the situation right now is apparently hitting all income levels and involves currencies in other parts of the world. Still, I'm hopeful that people see the value in buying high quality salmon. I'm also hopeful that our fleet and processors will work hard to maintain quality control, to ensure that our products are always worthy of the higher price point.
Good luck with your decision - it's a lot to mull over. I've represented this fleet more than 20 years and have seen permits rise to a high of about $50K and fall to about $11K. Somehow, they seem to always head back to the $30K+ level. Maybe someone else will chime in with some words of wisdom based on their experience over time.
Best in the New Year!
Dale, ATA
Salty
2009-01-02 18:55:36
I have had a few talks with people who know a little about salmon prices recently. Here is what I think. Troll Chinook prices are impossible to predict right now as there will be so few on the market and they are such a high end commodity that they could either fall quite a bit from last year or be relatively immune to what is happening with the rest of the market. The winter price seems to be 20-30% off from last year. But, there are so few that who knows what it will be when a few show up.
Coho prices will likely be down some. I suspect not more than 50% from last years high but probably not less than 20% off. Remember that last years SE troll coho were unusually large which added to their value. I recently talked to a processor who had just put a freezer van load of troll coho on the market and he said it was "ugly".
A person I know said he expects seine prices for pinks to be in the 25 cent a pound range. This is down from 35 cent plus last year. He expects seine chum to be in the 40 cent area, down from 70 cents. The roe price will be down quite a bit for a variety of reasons including the Russians backing out of significant commitments to buy chum roe.
But, this is all speculation on everyone's part right now. The world markets, as you all know, are in a state of flux unprecedented in our lifetimes.
What we know for sure is that trollers are over $2,000,000 short of their allocated yearly share of SE enhanced salmon commercial harvest values and that we should show up at or write the Alaska Board Of Fisheries letting them know we would like to be given better opportunity to catch our allocated share.
DiamondLil
2009-01-03 01:40:54
While Dale is correct saying that Sacramento doesn't have anything to do with SE quotas, it has a tremendous effect on California and Oregon fisheries. 2009 doesn't look any better for the CA/OR/WA fisheries than last year, so there will be a market for SE troll permits that should build as the PFMC process gets underway. It looks like the sports in WA are making a push for reallocation of the WA chinook quota, so there may also be some interest from WA trollers. There are a lot of other factors, but I don't see permit prices changing much this Spring.
Joe
mswkickdrum
2009-01-03 05:43:40
Dale Eric Joe,
Thanks for the response, and hopefully thanks to others that will. I got a Oregon permit with my boat, I figure
if I can get back down there after I finish up in SE (If I get there) I can at least punch my ticket and if they
have disaster relief like this last season, I'll get 5000 (fished at all) instead of 2000 (didn't fish at all).
I really appreciate the insight. I imagine, as with everything we hear from Salty, it's pretty good info.
My thinking has been that permits have been going up also due to the pressure from CA OR WA fishermen
moving up to SE for their season, thanks Joe for the insight. I do believe in the future, if it's wild salmon,
most likely it will only be available consistently in AK. Can't wait though to get a SE permit and join ATA.
Salty, does it matter for me to send in comments on the division of the allocation among
the sein, gill, and troll fleet if I'm not a licensed AK fisher? I'd be happy to send in if you
think it would qualify. I AM looking to get into it with a permit purchase, and the possible
loss of the Troll share would be a negative to my entrance. I TOTALLY see your point
on it being a big issue for the fleet. Once something regulatory in anything is taken
away it almost NEVER comes back. It may not matter much to the summer bunnies
but at the end of the day, all are holders of the same permit and it REALLY DOES
matter to all. Is were to send to comments on the allocation stream?
Thanks you guys for the thoughts and perspectives.
MSW
mswkickdrum
2009-01-03 05:45:53
Salty,
Neve rmind on where to send, its on the BOA ATA stream.
Thanks,
MSW
Salty
2009-01-03 06:42:32
I highly recommend that all trollers, potential trollers, and others who care about trolling or our wonderful salmon resource take a look at the proposals and write a sincere comment expressing how the proposal might affect you either positively or negatively. The Board of Fisheries process is an amazing ride of ups and downs. Interest groups seldom come away completely happy and I have seen the BOF literally crush the interests of some groups, like bottom trawlers in state waters near Kodiak, after the trawlers walked out of a collaborative process the Board had set up for them and other interests, but the Alaska Board of Fisheries/Alaska Department of Fish & Game process is arguably or indisputably the best fisheries management system in the world. And it is only as good as the quality and diversity of the input.
I know that during the brief time I was on the Board I read every comment mailed to me and answered every phone call. When I go to the Board I often go to the back of the meeting room where the Board staff keeps a big file with all the comments received on each proposal for the public to review. I usually read all the comments on all the proposals I am interested in before I make my testimony. It is amazing how few people are interested in what other people have to say so I usually have the area all to myself.
I sometimes add written comments in rebuttal when I find something erroneous or otherwise needs a response. Board members get a notebook with all the written comments organized by proposal. There is also staff comments which are important to review. But, if you can't make it to the meeting, I recommend picking out a few of the proposals or the proposal that most interest you, see what ATA has to say on it, perhaps what some of the rabble on this site have to say, and then write your own comment.
I am planning to write my comments now, but then Deer Hunting and Boat work, and bowl games got in the way. Tomorrow for sure.
How bout them Ducks, Beavers, and Utes!!!