ata
2010-12-03 20:34:42
I'll attach the ADFG press release, which discusses a low level abundance forecast and less than rosey outlook for the 2011 Taku and Stikine River chinook fisheries. These numbers will be revisited closer to the season, so it ain't over yet!
Dale
ATA
STIKINE RIVER AND TAKU RIVER KING SALMON FORECASTS FOR 2011
Sitka. . . The Alaska Department of Fish and Game announced today the following information
concerning the pre-season forecast for king salmon returning to the Stikine and Taku Rivers in 2011:
The 2011 pre-season terminal run forecast for large Stikine River king salmon is 30,000 fish. The
resulting U.S. Allowable Catch (AC) is 190 large Stikine kings. An AC of this size will not allow for
directed commercial fisheries to occur in early May. An in-season terminal run estimate will be
produced in late May. If the first in-season estimate is significantly greater than the pre-season forecast,
limited directed king salmon fishing could occur.
The 2011 forecast is the third consecutive Stikine River king salmon pre-season terminal run forecast in
the past six seasons that does not allow for directed commercial fisheries. During the 2006, 2007, 2008,
2009 and 2010 seasons the preseason forecasts were 60,600, 37,400, 46,100, 32,000 and 23,000 fish
respectively.
The 2011 pre-season terminal run forecast for large Taku River king salmon is 41,000 fish. A terminal
run of this size yields a U.S. Allowable Catch of 1,533 large Taku king salmon. Given the relatively
small Allowed Catch and taking into consideration forecast confidence intervals, directed Chinook
commercial troll and gillnet fisheries in District 11 will not open unless an in-season terminal run estimate
produced in late May, provides sufficient allowed catch for manageable fisheries to be prosecuted.
The 2011 season would be the fifth season the preseason forecast provides allowed catch for directed
fisheries on returning Taku River king salmon since these fisheries were reestablished in 2005.
When the first in-season Taku and Stikine River king salmon terminal run estimates are produced, a news
release will be distributed as soon as possible with the estimated run size, resulting allowable catch, and
information concerning potential directed king salmon fishery openings.